Artificial intelligence could reshape approximately 40 per cent of jobs worldwide, with some roles facing automation, reduced demand or elimination, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva issued the warning on October 12, 2026, during the IMF and World Bank annual meetings in Bangkok, Thailand. She described AI as a “slow-moving tsunami” that could significantly disrupt labour markets, education systems and government revenue.
However, the IMF's projection does not mean that AI will automatically take over 40 per cent of all jobs or leave the same proportion of workers unemployed. The estimate covers jobs that could be changed by AI, including roles where the technology assists workers, transforms responsibilities or replaces tasks currently performed by humans.
Advanced Economies Face Greater AI Exposure
According to the IMF, the potential impact of artificial intelligence varies considerably across economies.
About 60 per cent of jobs in advanced economies could be affected by AI, compared with approximately 40 per cent in emerging market economies and 26 per cent in low-income countries, according to the Fund's research.
In advanced economies, around half of the jobs exposed to AI could benefit from its adoption through improved productivity. For the other half, AI could perform important tasks previously handled by employees, potentially reducing demand for workers, putting pressure on wages and slowing recruitment.
In some cases, positions could disappear entirely if employers find that automated systems can perform the work without requiring the same level of human involvement.
The figures highlight the difference between jobs being affected by technology and jobs being completely eliminated. While some workers may face displacement, others could use AI tools to complete tasks more efficiently and expand their capabilities.
Young Workers Could Face Growing Employment Challenges
The impact of AI on entry-level employment has become a growing concern among policymakers.
Speaking at the same gathering in Bangkok, Singapore President Tharman Shanmugaratnam warned that employers were showing less demand for some entry-level positions, particularly jobs traditionally available to graduates beginning their careers.
He urged governments to ensure that AI creates employment opportunities and allows young workers to progress professionally rather than preventing them from securing their first jobs.
The concern is that employers could increasingly use AI to handle tasks previously assigned to junior employees, including routine research, document preparation, basic analysis and administrative work.
If companies reduce entry-level recruitment, young people could find it more difficult to gain the experience required to qualify for more senior positions.
The IMF has also warned that workers will need to develop new skills as AI adoption expands. In a January 2026 report, Georgieva noted that one in 10 job postings in advanced economies and one in 20 in emerging market economies required at least one new skill.
AI Could Also Create New Opportunities
Despite the risks, the IMF has not presented artificial intelligence solely as a threat to employment.
AI can help workers complete tasks faster, improve productivity and support the development of new products and services. Businesses may also create new positions requiring people who can develop, manage, supervise or work alongside AI systems.
In its January 2024 analysis, the IMF explained that AI could complement some workers while replacing tasks performed by others. The overall impact would depend on how businesses adopt the technology and how governments and workers respond to the changes.
The challenge will be ensuring that productivity gains translate into broader economic benefits instead of concentrating wealth among businesses and workers best positioned to use the technology.
The IMF has called for investment in digital infrastructure, education, retraining programmes and social safety nets to help workers adjust to the transition.
Developing Countries Could Face a Different Set of Risks
Countries with less developed digital infrastructure and fewer workers with advanced technical skills could face difficulties benefiting from AI.
Although the IMF estimates that a smaller proportion of jobs in low-income countries will be exposed to AI than in advanced economies, it warns that limited technological readiness could prevent these countries from capturing the benefits.
This presents a challenge for developing economies, where access to digital education, reliable infrastructure and specialised training may determine how effectively workers adapt.
For countries such as Nigeria, preparing workers to use digital tools and developing relevant technical skills could become increasingly important as employers adopt AI-enabled systems. This is an implication of the IMF's broader findings rather than a specific forecast about Nigeria's employment figures.
IMF Warns of Wider Economic Consequences
Georgieva also warned that AI-driven changes could affect how governments raise revenue.
If economies become more dependent on capital and automated systems while relying less on human labour, governments may need to reconsider how their tax systems operate.
The IMF's warning comes as investment in AI infrastructure supports global economic activity. Georgieva said the investment boom was helping keep worldwide economic growth around 3 per cent despite pressure from energy supply disruptions.
The central question for policymakers is how to encourage innovation while protecting workers who may lose employment opportunities or struggle to adapt.
As AI technology continues to develop, the scale of its effect on jobs will depend on how quickly businesses adopt it, which tasks can be automated and whether workers can access the training needed to move into changing or emerging roles.
For now, the IMF's 40 per cent estimate signals the potential scale of workplace transformation—not a prediction that four out of every 10 workers worldwide will necessarily lose their jobs.
