JOS — A newly released six-year investigation by the Observatory for Religious Freedom in Africa (ORFA) has presented a stark and comprehensive assessment of Nigeria’s security landscape. The report, titled "Four Times Boko Haram? How the World Misreads Nigeria’s Violence," provides detailed data on the scale of violence across the country between October 2019 and September 2025. According to the findings, 79,323 people were killed in terrorism-related violence during this period, averaging seven attacks per day and 36 deaths daily.
Challenging Established Narratives
The ORFA findings, unveiled in Jos on June 30, 2026, significantly disrupt long-held international assumptions regarding the primary perpetrators of insecurity in Nigeria. While global discourse has frequently centered on the threats posed by Boko Haram and the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP), ORFA’s data suggests that these groups account for only 12 percent of civilian killings, with Boko Haram responsible for 8 percent and ISWAP for 4 percent.
In contrast, the report identifies armed groups categorized as “Fulani Terror Groups”—affiliated with what ORFA defines as the Fulani Ethnic Militia (FEM)—as the primary drivers of violence. These militias are attributed with 44 percent of all civilian deaths, amounting to 18,577 fatalities. ORFA researchers emphasized a strict distinction between these specific armed groups and the broader Fulani ethnic population, noting that the vast majority of Fulani people are not involved in violent activity.
The Scope of Violence and Abduction
The investigation documented 42,033 civilian deaths and 37,290 deaths among security forces and members of terror groups. Beyond the killings, the report highlights an epidemic of mass abductions, recording 34,773 civilians seized over the six-year period.
The data attributes responsibility for these abductions as follows:
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Fulani Terror Groups: 43% of abductions.
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Unidentified Terror Groups: 49% of abductions.
The majority of these abductions occurred during armed raids on the victims' homes, creating widespread displacement and economic devastation in rural settlements.
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The "Captivity by Creed" Phenomenon
A significant portion of the report explores the religious dimension of the crisis. ORFA documented that 28,551 Christians and 13,224 Muslims were killed during the review period (after mathematically distributing victims whose religious identity was initially unknown). When adjusted for state population figures, the study found that Christians in affected regions were killed at 4.4 times the rate of Muslims.
The report introduces the concept of “Captivity by Creed,” a pattern where hostages are treated differently based on their religious identity. Survivor testimonies documented by ORFA indicate that:
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Christian hostages often face higher ransom demands, longer negotiation periods, and a higher probability of execution, even after ransom payments have been made.
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Christian female hostages face a heightened risk of extreme sexual violence, forced conversion, and forced marriage.
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Muslim captives, while also facing significant violence and kidnapping, frequently experience different treatment patterns, though the report notes that many Muslim civilians—particularly Hausa Muslims—have also suffered extensively under the same armed groups.
Methodology and Policy Implications
The ORFA study utilized an extensive data methodology, capturing up to 60 data points per incident across five primary sources, including field research, local partners, academic institutions, and verified social media content.
Steven Kefas, an ORFA analyst and author of Captivity by Creed: The Religious Sorting System Nobody Talks About, stated that the data reveals a systemic devaluing of human life along religious lines. “From the moment of capture, Muslim and Christian hostages enter different realities. It is a system that is consistent across multiple states, armed groups, and years of survivor testimony,” Kefas noted.
The report concludes by urging policymakers and international observers to acknowledge the religious dimensions of the violence. It argues that any strategy aimed at resolving Nigeria’s persistent insecurity will remain incomplete and ineffective without a comprehensive accounting of these specific drivers. The authors call for an urgent re-evaluation of international security partnerships to better address the militias that are currently responsible for the dominant share of Nigeria’s death toll.
