ABUJA — Industry operators are expressing cautious optimism that the price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) could plummet to as low as ₦900 per litre in the coming days, provided the proposed peace agreement between the United States and Iran is finalized and the Strait of Hormuz is reopened to international shipping.

Market Optimism Following Geopolitical Cooling

Global crude oil prices, which surged to over $120 per barrel at the height of the US-Iran conflict in April, have retreated to approximately $87 per barrel as of Sunday. This sustained decline has reignited hopes for a domestic price correction.

Fuel marketers, including the Petroleum Retail Outlet Owners Association of Nigeria (PETROAN), believe that the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz a critical artery for global energy supplies will be the primary catalyst for a significant price reduction.

"If the Strait of Hormuz is reopened, Nigerians should expect a very significant reduction in petrol prices," said Joseph Obele, Publicity Secretary of PETROAN. "Petrol will fall below ₦1,000, probably to ₦900 per litre. We are looking at a return to the price regime we saw before the crisis."

The Dangote Refinery Factor

Speculation is mounting regarding potential adjustments by the Dangote Petroleum Refinery. While the refinery recently lowered its gantry price to ₦1,250 per litre for petrol and ₦1,700 per litre for diesel, a source within the facility noted that inventory costs remain a hurdle.

"Yes, ₦900 per litre is possible if oil prices settle down, but we still hold a substantial volume of crude purchased at much higher prices during the peak of the conflict," the source stated. Operators anticipate a "price war" among marketers once imports normalize and the geopolitical premium is fully stripped from global oil prices.

Diplomatic Breakthrough

The optimism is rooted in President Donald Trump’s recent announcement regarding a new peace deal with Iran. Describing the agreement as a "wall to no nuclear weapon," Trump confirmed that the Strait of Hormuz would be opened to all traffic immediately upon the signing of the deal.

While the official signing was anticipated over the weekend, the market is already pricing in the end of hostilities. With some marketers already adjusting their ex-depot prices below the ₦1,250 benchmark, the industry is bracing for a potential shift in the pump price landscape as the new diplomatic era takes hold.